Elections VII: Now let’s talk
It’s not really over yet, there are still a few “critical” seats to be finalised, but enough of the results have come in for us to now make a reflection on how Malaysian’s have voted over the weekend.
No one, almost no one, predicted the landslide victory for the Barisan Nasional, in particular the almost complete turning of tide in Terengganu and Kelantan.
For me the most intriguing question is what prompted the change in sentiments in Terengganu and Kelantan. Some of the explanations offered so far are:
* Voters have rejected PAS’s version of political Islam and support Badawi’s moderate version of the religion (AWSJ, AFP, Reuters, Abdul Razak Baginda,
* Support for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s reform agenda (AWSJ, Abdul Razak Baginda, Ho Kay Tat, Suhaini Aznam
* The fading of the Anwar-star (Chandra Muzaffar, Ho Kay Tat, Suhaini Aznam)
Or is it because:
* Voters in these two states are tired of being poor and sidelined from development? In the past, the BN government has generally deprived states governed by opposition parties, in particular Kelantan, from federal funds for development purposes.
* Voters are sympathetic to Pak Lah for what he is as an individual and would like to give him a chance - but at the same time are not saying that they reject PAS’ version of Islam, and are in fact, waiting to see how Pak Lah would move towards PAS’ form of Islam?
* Or is this a rejection of the less than savoury form of politics practised by PAS - the mud slinging, the heaven and earth discourse?
Or is this a combination of all the above?
I’d be interested to hear your views. Do share them.
Posted on March 22nd, 2004 by jl
Filed under: My Malaysia
I am not surprised that BN has won… but I have to congratulate them for the “coup” in Trengganu and Kelantan…
Here is my hypotheses…..
First, BN has so far proved to be the (coalition) ruling party that had provided material benefits to citizens of Malaysia… not withstanding some policy hiccups that hurts consumers such as protection of automobile industry and other questionable mega projects… this is in comparison with neighbouring countries (don’t count Singapore..)….
The lesson is… if incumbent has delivered economic growth…. it will be popular…
Yes… in this regard voters in Kelantan and Terengganu would want to get their share of economic progress… so they vote for BN…
The second hypothesis… BN has succesfully counter Pas image as the protector of Islam… This applies for religious voters… It could very well be that Pak Lah is using his religious appeal…. but this is a complex question.. (A long essay…. to do this…)
Maybe this has to do with both cultural and religious reasons… (I don’t know… Even though I am a Malay but I have to say… I am not fully in touch with the Malay culture)… Again this is a complex question that requires complex answers….
So that is my two hypotheses why BN won the recent election….
The Opposition needs to reinvent itself, quick!! BN has got 5 years to show what they can do. In another 5 years, we will pass judgment!!
Definitely. I am still bloody surprised. Kelantan and Terengganu will be the focus of many, many questions, I would think.
PAS members/politicians would be wise to analyse this defeat if they ever want to wrestle Kelantan/T’ganu back fully.
As for the here and now…let’s just hope BN doesn’t forget too easily.
I think people have to accept that opposition has no chances of ruling Malaysia.
And as the results show… even no chances of denying 2/3 majority of BN….
If my memory does not falter me… in the 1999 elections some of our local commentators predicted BN losing its 2/3 majority. They were wrong.
In this recent election, again there were commentators with that prediction, and they were wrong again.
I would dare predict that in the next elections barring any unforseeable events, BN will win again. I will give a 80% probability that BN will retain 2/3 majority.
as i also mentioned in jeff ooi’s blog, methinks one of the main reason could be PAS like to use religion to attack its opponents. remember once, hadi awang (i think) attacked pak lah about something that he did not performed during his mother’s funeral? i suppose many of the malays were pretty irked at that seeing that many of them had got to grow fond of pak lah.
well i do agree with chaerul salleh’s second hypothesis… also concerning religion.
On Lucia’s comment…
Maybe Pas has misread the Malay voters. Perhaps they assume that Malay-Muslim masses (I am talking about masses; not the intellectual and religious elites which do exist but forms a minority) will accept the party’s platform. Obviously that is not the case.
the interesting thing is that if you analyse the state level results for Terengganu, you’ll find that quite a number, though not the majority, of the seats wrested by BN were won with slim majorities (I have the figures but not now). Also Hadi Awang was defeated at the Parliamentary by a very very slim margin (less than (0.3%). This to me suggests that the voters in Terengganu are still somewhat split and that sentiments aren’t so overwhelmingly in favour of the BN as the absolute results might suggest.
A lot more thought needs to go into this, and hence the need for those election results data sets!
Hey Jikon,
Of course… so if that is the case then the battle for the Malay heartland will continue to be an issue in the future.
I don’t have the numbers…. I have made my comments on the aggregate figures…. and on past information…
But as to my predictions… they remain the same with a high degree of confidence.
About the election data that you mentioned… I think you should do a more than just analyzing numbers….
To complement your study, why don’t you also do a survey later on… I know this method… it is called the Q-Methodology… it is supposed to be useful in dealing with subjective issues such as political preferences. It is a “contraversial” method though… but perhaps suited to the topic on hand… especially when you want to analyse preferences at the individual level.
Anyway, I am no political scientist but I know some folks (political scientists) who use this method. And once upon a time, I thought of using this method for my research….
If you wish, I will get back to you with more info on this matter.
Cheers
Good Night.
I think most Malaysians were fooled by Pak Lah’s “give me a mandate” without knowing the strength of the warlords within BN that Pak Lah would never dare touch. Now that the warlords are seen to have won with larger majority, it would be even tougher to even threaten them, what more removing them.
U talk about BN victory based on Abdullah’s nice guy factor,moderate version of Islam,reform agenda,fading Anwar issue,Malays in Kel&Teren. tired being too poor and need development & so on…….
Consider the factors below that will never be reported by the media.
Oppsition handicaps;
1. no media attention
2. RTM & TV123789 are all for BN kempen siang malam.
3. shortest campaign period
4. shoestring budget compared to BN lavish spending
5. billboards
6. advertisments
7. SPR - no transperency,created more problems.
8. large chunks of opposition voters being tranfered out
9. ghost voters(undi hantu)
10. money politics - voters given bet. RM100-RM300 & in kinds like,batik,sarong,beras,gula etc.
11.the acting minister promise heaven & earth projects,though its illegal yet BN minister di their job perfectly!
12. BN used their mafia(Pemuda Gerak Gempur) to intimidate voters & dont forget Pak Lah police force being Home Minister
13. redelineation of constituencies that’s pro BN
14. putting more Malay voters in Chinese majority areas like Kota Melaka,Bukit Bendera,Kepong etc.
15. putting more Chinese voters in Malay majority areas like Kuala Kedah,Pokok Sena,Sik,Baling & Jerai(Yan),Parit Buntar,Nibong Tebal etc.
Many more……just add to the list.
Against this backdrop do U think the opposition stand a chance? In 3 more GE the scenario will be the same!