Of all the conclusions derived from the results of the recent General Elections, the most widespread and prominent is that PAS’ version of political Islam has now been trumped and defeated.

This is most notable in the headline of a report by MalaysiaKini: “BN victory a defeat for political Islam” it proclaims loudly. MalaysiaKini also quotes Abdul Razak Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Centre in several reports as saying that the results of the General Elections “shows that the more extreme Islamic forces have been kept at bay and that the Malays are in favour of a moderate Islam” (see here for instance). The news portal then quotes Robert Broadfoot, managing director of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy as saying, “If it happens in Indonesia and (other parts of) Southeast Asia, it would be showing that there is an alternative route for Islamic culture that is not threatening and is not one that the world has to fear.” Andrew Tan, a security analyst with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore, was also cited by MalaysiaKini as saying that “this is something that could very well be crucial in turning back the tide of fundamentalism, not just in Malaysia but also elsewhere.” (see this report).

In a front page article in today’s edition, the Asian Wall Street Journal cited Shamsul Amri Baharuddin, sociologist at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, who observed that “even the Malays rejected PAS because they want to give the Abdullah moderate brand of Islam a chance.” The leader of the AWSJ concluded that “the elections in Malaysia are a blow to Islamic conservatives” and that “Muslims … spurned PAS’s vision of a theocracy and chose secular politics.” It further suggested that “religion was reestablished as an area of personal piety.” The Associated Press reported that “voters overwhelmingly rejected the hardline policies of the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, known as PAS, in favour of Abdullah’s promises of a moderate form of Islam and cleaner government” (see here). Reuters argued that fundamentalist Islam has been weakened as a political force (see here).

Alternative media and the foreign press were not the only ones crooning this tune. The local printed press were just as loud. Wong Sulong proclaimed in the Star that “PAS has been shown up as the party it always has been - narrow-minded and bereft of ideas.” “PAS’ Islamic Agenda Left the Malays Cold” crowed a headline in the New Straits Times. The Utusan Malaysia states that “Rakyat Tolak Fahaman PAS”.

Alas, I am not so sure that this is the right conclusion to draw. I am uncertain that PAS really has been beaten. They may have been defeated with the absolute results, but have we really seen the backs of PAS or of political Islam in general?

The Singapore Straits Times was more cautious in its leader. But it was also the Singapore Straits Times that highlighted that “PAS might be down, but it is by no means out. Despite its loss of seats, its share of the vote rose to 15.8 per cent, slightly up from the 15 per cent it polled in 1999.” (see here)

It is worth bearing in mind that out of the 28 state seats won by BN in Terengganu, 10 were won with less than 10% majority and two seats were won with 10-15% majority. Similarly in Kedah, out of the 31 state seats won by BN, eight seats were won with less than 10% majority and four seats were won with 10-15% majority. Hadi Awang may have lost his Parliamentary seat, but this was with a very narrow margin - only 163 votes, or less than 0.3%! When PAS secured their majority in Terengganu in 1999, many of their seats were won with narrow margins. So, given our first past the post system, only a very small swing was required to bring BN back into the state government.

This suggests to me that the “Malay heartland” is still very much split and that we have not seen the end of PAS yet. I do not think that there really has been such a phenomenal “swing” of sentiments as the absolute results might suggest. At the relative level, the difference is probably much smaller, if at all. Given that the percentage of the popular vote going to PAS has risen, their level of support has probably not changed at all. It is perhaps the alienated supporters of BN who have returned.

More importantly, I do not think that political Islam is dead, or renounced, as some commentators would like to believe. The excitement to come to this conclusion is perhaps understandable given 9-11, the threat of terrorism generally linked to fanatical Muslims, and the fact that political Islam in practice has in our modern age generally been exclusionary in nature. However, the fact of the matter is that in Malaysia, PAS has long sinced forced UMNO to go on the Islamic path and Islam has in the last 10 years been increasingly prominently in mainstream politics. It is unlikely that it will disappear now. And given how Muslims generally understand Islam, religion, at least Islam, would never be only an area of personal piety - it would be a public piety, publicly expressed in social, economic and political institutions. The Muslims in Malaysia have not chosen secular politics as the AWSJ would like to believe.

What is more worrying is that with PAS and conservative Islam now deprived of an official platform, where will its subscribers turn? Have we in effect beaten them back into the shadows and thus the underground? Will the “moderate forces” have to contend with fighting the unknown? More importantly will the extreme supporters become disillusioned by the supposedly resounding PAS defeat and thus turn to alternative organisations and/or political philosophies? PAS’ social and political beliefs may have been unpalatable to many, but at least they largely subscribed to the democratic process of the country and were willing, to a greater or lesser extend, to work with the system. Has the electorate unwittingly done ourselves a disfavour in the General Elections? We might never know. But will it be too late when we do find out?

Posted on March 23rd, 2004 by jl
Filed under: My Malaysia