Elections IX: Self-Deception and the Faith
The over-the-top, exuberant and in my view exaggerrated proclamation of the triump of moderate Islam continues unabated today, both in the local and foreign press. (I shall not bother listing them down. Yesterday’s examples are still representative.)
Singapore’s Straits Times continues to be the only newspaper to temper its reactions with restrain and cynicism. They and Brendan Pereira, formerly the Straits Times’ Bureau Chief in Kuala Lumpur, now with Malaysia’s New Straits Times. In his commentary today, Pereira picked up the point made by Warren Fernandez (of Singapore’s Straits Times) yesterday that PAS’ share of the popular vote rose to 15.8% from 15% five years ago. After an analysis of the results, he cautiously concluded that “if Abdullah (Ahmad Badawi) does not carry out his reform agenda, the next wave in five years may push them (PAS) back into national prominence.” Premesh Chandran of MalaysiaKini was similarly cautious in his analysis. He did not believe that the results signalled a “rejection of ideological concepts such as an Islamic state.”
More data has now emerged to support my argument yesterday. We should not be so quick to judge that “radical” Islam, as propagated by PAS, or that PAS are now in the retreat. They are at best at rest, but they have certainly not been driven out.
Page 10 of the Star newspaper today published the popular votes garnered by BN and the opposition. While overall, the popular vote for the opposition has declined, the following are telling:
Popular Votes to the Opposition for State Seats
Kelantan 296,056 (1999) and 262,528 (2004)
Terengganu 180,492 (1999) and 171,136 (2004)
Perlis 36,221 (1999) and 33,859 (2004)
Kedah 252,487 (1999) and 263,143 (2004)
While admittedly the popular vote going to the opposition (for all intents and purposes in these cases, PAS or its proxies) had declined, they have not declined in such huge numbers as to warrant the euphoric reactions we’ve seen so far in the press. Similarly, although the percentage of votes garnered by the BN in these states have risen, with the exception of Perlis and Kedah, the percentages hover around the 50% mark (see Premesh Chandran’s commentary). More important, the number of votes going to the opposition have actually increased in Kedah! Similar observations hold for seats at the Parliamentary level.
I therefore reassert that “radical” Islam and PAS are not dead. They may have lost the battle but they haven’t lost the war. While most people, particularly those in the West, are understandably disturbed by terrorist activity in the last 3 years, usually linked to radical Muslims, we should not let our desires cloud our judgement. While we may desire for the retreat of radical Islam, desire and reality are, to state the obvious, two very different things. In celebrating the absolute victory by BN, let us not be deceived in our euphoria and more importantly, let our deceptions not be the foundations of our future actions, or inaction.
Posted on March 24th, 2004 by jl
Filed under: My Malaysia
I have followed your your blog.
Your conclusion is in line with the data.
Of course this is assuming first, those who actually voted for Pas do vote for “radical” Islam and second (given the first assumption holds): that their preferences will not change over time.
The result of gerrymandeering? A simple trick can be carried out in the next few years to seal the results - transmigration. Major programmes to encourage westcoasters and East Malaysians into Terengganu especially may forestall the trend. But this is a costly and unpredictable strategy.
hi J,
any bday plans? Lunch with me next week?
SM
ssshhhh….!
You guys in the Klang Valley talk continously about the PAS threat, but have absolutely no idea why PAS is as popular as it is. Well guess what: I grew up in Kuantan and have tons of relatives in Kuala Trengganu and my uncle was a career politician there. I have worked and talked with people who are diehard PAS fans from Kemaman.
The one reason, just one, why PAS festers in those regions is this: Poverty. Now, poverty in those areas are different from those in the Klang Valley. To be poor in Kelantan is not to live in slums and eat dirt. Those people there live and eat well, but in their own rural way. It’s just that the brand of materialism as we know it, as well as our money, glamour, and Starbucks-centered lives are foreign over there. There isn’t that obsession with money and what it can buy. When these values finally cath up with them, PAS is dead. In fact, any party which is not trade and capital friendly is dead when people are obsessed with all the accoutrements of a capitalistic society.
Outsider: I agree with you, but you must admit the irony - that we must adopt the consumerist/materialistic strategy when we’re not so sure ourselves that consumerism and materialism are really all that desirable in and of themselves…!